Vietnam Insight

Global equities rebound as oil prices tumble on U.S.–Iran peace deal. US stock futures moved lower on Monday as tensions flared during the first day of talks between the US and Iran, driving oil prices higher. President Donald Trump threatened fresh strikes if Hezbollah continues its attacks on Israel and warned Tehran against closing the Strait of Hormuz again. Meanwhile, Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended negotiations in response to Trump's remarks, although sources familiar with the discussions said talks were still ongoing. Investors also turned their attention to this week's release of the US PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged but signaled a more hawkish stance, with nearly half of FOMC members now expecting at least one rate increase before year-end. Despite this, US equities posted gains last week, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which rose 2.43%, while the S&P 500 and Dow advanced 0.93% and 0.71%, respectively.

Accumulating ahead of a breakout. The VN-Index closed at 1,824.53 points, down 5.94 points (-0.32%), with trading volume below the 20-session average. Market liquidity declined again during the derivatives expiry session. Market breadth was negative, with 84 gainers and 204 decliners. The main positive contributors to the index were LPB, VHM, and STB, while BID, MCH, and VPB weighed on the index. Foreign investors recorded a net sell value of VND 1,632 billion, primarily concentrated in FPT and VHM.

Trading Strategy: Investors may focus on stocks with sideways consolidation patterns and strong earnings growth rather than concentrating solely on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positioning. In the short term, opportunities may emerge in heavily sold off stocks showing signs of recovery, such as insurance, technology, and real estate sectors. Investors should limit the use of margin when the trend is not clearly defined during this period.

Current portfolio: MBB; CTD

Watchlist: HPG, KDH, SSI, Real estate stocks (PDR, NLG, DXG).