Vietnam Insight

▶ The upward trend continued in Tuesday's trading session, with the Securities sector being a highlight following news of amendments to the Securities Law and rumors of an extension of trading hours. Many representatives of this group recorded good gains with improved trading volume, notably FTS, CTS, BSU, VND, SSI... Market breadth leaned towards gainers, with 187 stocks rising and 113 falling. Overall, market liquidity remained stable at 18 trillion VND, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious and net selling by foreign investors continues, although the net selling volume narrowed to only 368 billion VND.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 8.63 points (+0.48%), closing at 1,807.94 points; the HNX-Index increased by 8.71 points (+2.8%), reaching 319.62 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges reached approximately VND 18.4 trillion, corresponding to about 769 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 638 billion during the session, with the stocks experiencing the strongest net selling being VHM, MBB, and TCB; conversely, the stocks experiencing net buying were HPG, NLG, and TCX.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continues its upward trend, but the main driving force still comes from a few leading stock groups. Investor sentiment generally remains cautious ahead of important upcoming events such as the expiration of index futures contracts and new developments related to the US-Iran peace negotiations. Nevertheless, the index is showing relatively solid accumulation around its current level, reflecting a balance between supply and demand, thus creating a foundation for a new upward movement as capital flows show signs of improvement.

In the coming period, we expect the VN-Index to continue its positive trend and aim for the next resistance level around 1,850 points. Improved liquidity will play a crucial role in strengthening investor confidence and confirming the return of capital flows, thereby supporting the index to complete its current accumulation phase and extend its upward momentum in the next period.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.