Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

U.S. headline CPI rose 0.5% in May, pushing annual inflation to 4.2%. This marks the highest inflation rate since April 2023 and the first time in three years that U.S. inflation has exceeded the 4% threshold.

Gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday (June 9), hitting their lowest level in more than two months.

Vietnam’s average CPI for the first five months of 2026 increased by 4.31%, approaching the National Assembly’s full-year inflation target ceiling of 4.5%.

The ECB raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.

Assessment: The resurgence of inflation in both the U.S. and Vietnam has been driven primarily by rising energy prices. Although core inflation increased by only 2.9%, it is still sufficient to prompt markets to reassess the likelihood of maintaining a low-interest-rate environment this year. Notably, the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, while the BOJ is also expected to raise interest rates in the near future. In the short term, the market is unlikely to stage a meaningful breakout unless upcoming news provides a sufficiently positive boost to investor sentiment.

Technical View: VN-Index closed the week at 1,791.65 points (-47.25 points; -2.57%) on the weekly chart, with trading liquidity continuing to decline. Foreign investors maintained net selling of approximately VND 500 billion per session. The index has broken below its 50-day moving average (MA50) around the 1,800 level earlier in the week and has yet to reclaim this threshold. Given the current trend, the market is likely to extend its correction toward the 1,700–1,750 support zone.

Investment Idea: Investors may consider accumulating stocks that are trading sideways or experiencing only mild corrections while continuing to deliver solid earnings growth, particularly for medium-term positions. Increasing exposure to short-term trades is not recommended while the market remains in a corrective phase. In addition, investors should avoid chasing rallies, as weak market breadth and limited participation could make any upward moves less sustainable.