Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

Rumors emerged that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) may impose a credit growth cap in Q2. Four banks involved in the transfer of “zero-dong” banks reportedly saw their credit growth quotas reduced from 35% to 26%.

Vietnam’s national power system and the northern region continued to set new electricity consumption records during the severe heatwave on May 25–26, with outdoor temperatures reaching 40–42°C. 

The national grid recorded peak capacity demand of 57,120 MW at 1:40 PM, up 13.5% YoY, while electricity consumption reached 1.171 billion kWh, exceeding the previous 2025 record by 5.3%.

Domestic gasoline and oil prices fell sharply on May 28, tracking the cooling trend in global energy markets.

Assessment: The market reacted cautiously to several banking-sector rumors, limiting upside momentum despite the relatively modest impact. The real estate sector rallied on May 26 following news that Phat Dat Real Estate Development (PDR) signed an MOU with Lotte Group, though most gains faded by the end of the week. Lower oil prices and signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations — despite remaining obstacles — could provide short-term support for foreign capital flows, or at least help reduce net foreign selling pressure.

Technical View: VN-Index closed the week at 1,863.4 points (-13.6 points; -0.73%) with declining liquidity. Market volatility remained narrow amid the absence of a clear leading sector. The VIN-related stocks showed signs of accumulation and mild declines, but cash flow has yet to broaden across the market. Overall, the market structure remains in a short-term sideways-to-downtrend phase.

Investment Idea: Investors may consider gradually accumulating stocks that are trading sideways or slightly lower but still deliver strong earnings growth, targeting medium-term positions. Sectors worth monitoring include banking, steel, and real estate. However, disbursement should be staged gradually, as most sectors have yet to confirm a clear upward trend.