Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 5.69 points despite the downward pressure from the previous session. The downward pressure intensified as Vingroup stocks, including VIC, VHM, VRE, and VPL, continued to face strong selling pressure. Banking stocks attempted to recover during the session, but this was insufficient to curb the market's downward trend. Simultaneously, foreign capital inflows showed no signs of returning, with foreign investors continuing to be net sellers during the session.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 9.75 points (-0.52%) to 1,874.43 points; the HNX-Index rose 4.08 points (+1.47%) to 282.23 points. Market liquidity remained low during the correction, below the 20-day average, at 25.5 trillion VND, corresponding to 916.5 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell 812 billion VND today, with the largest net selling value in VHM, HPG, and VIC. Conversely, MSB, ACB, and MWG were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: The banking sector continued to attract capital, while market liquidity improved slightly compared to recent lows. Meanwhile, the continued correction in stocks related to VIC caused the VN-Index to lose nearly 10 points, implying that the market is generally sideways excluding this group. Although foreign investors continued to be net sellers, selling pressure has significantly decreased in recent sessions. The fact that the banking sector played a leading role as the market approached its peak is considered a positive sign. Historically, the financial sector often plays a leading role in breakouts, contributing to shaping the overall market trend. As seen in the recent breakout in 2025, improved liquidity, a clear breakout, the spread of capital across sectors, and the return of foreign capital are important conditions for forming a more sustainable uptrend. To attract foreign capital back to emerging markets like Vietnam, a weaker US dollar and lower (or at least no further increases) global interest rates will play a crucial role, alongside the prospect of corporate profit growth. Furthermore, an agreement reached between the US and Iran, along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, could put downward pressure on oil prices and reduce the likelihood of major central banks continuing to raise interest rates, thereby creating a more favorable environment for emerging markets, including Vietnam. Technically, the VN-Index closed above the MA50, while the RSI remained in the neutral zone around 52. Currently, the VN-Index is in a consolidation phase within the 1,850–1,950 point range.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the war. The lack of catalysts keeps the VN-Index sideways around its previous peak of 1,850–1,950 points. The return of foreign capital along with stability in the Middle East will be important factors triggering an upward trend in the market. In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further reinforced.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong business growth rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have accumulation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to disburse funds in anticipation of Q2 and Q3/2026 business results.