Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened with a 6.24-point gap, continuing the upward trend from the previous session. The return of Vingroup stocks played a leading role in today's trading session. Although the index continued to face net selling pressure from foreign investors for more than 10 consecutive sessions, domestic investor demand overcame this selling pressure. The index headed towards the strong resistance zone of 1,900-1,950.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index closed up 17.81 points (+0.94%), reaching 1,909.01 points; the HNX-Index decreased 0.70 points (-0.28%), to 247.76 points. Market liquidity peaked compared to previous sessions and exceeded the 20-day average, reaching 31.2 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,034.2 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell 311 billion VND today, with the largest net selling values in FPT, ACB, and KDH. Conversely, MSN, GEX, and POW were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: The VN-Index continues its positive upward momentum, successfully breaking through the important resistance level of 1,900 points and surpassing the previous peak set in early 2026. This development is supported by significantly improved demand and better distribution of capital across sectors, rather than concentrating on just a few large-cap stocks. Investor sentiment has also become more stable after the previous prolonged accumulation phase. In the short term, after conquering the 1,900-point mark, the index is likely to head towards the 1,950-point region. However, the market is likely to experience periods of volatility to restructure and shift capital to new leading stock groups such as banking and securities.

In the underlying scenario: The ceasefire agreement has improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to head towards its previous peak of 1,950 points.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvement in business performance. Currently, capital flows tend to favor sectors with domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital inflow have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.