Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened with a slight gap down of 0.98 points after the correction in the previous session. Despite continued net selling pressure from foreign investors, domestic investor demand outweighed the selling pressure. The renewed contribution from Vingroup stocks, including VIC, VHM, VRE, and VPL, boosted the index's recovery. The index was also supported by the oil and gas sector, with prominent stocks including BSR, PVS, and PLX. 

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 20.79 points (+1.12%), reaching 1,874.85 points; the HNX-Index fell 2.62 points (-1.05%), to 247.42 points. Market liquidity increased during the recovery session compared to previous sessions; however, it remained below the 20-day average at VND 24.1 trillion, corresponding to 870 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued their strong net selling of VND 997 billion today, with the largest net selling values in ACB, HPG, and FPT. Conversely, POW, PVT, and VHM were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: The VN-Index had a strong recovery session, mainly contributed by Vingroup and oil and gas stocks. Liquidity improved compared to previous sessions but remained low, and the money flow did not show widespread distribution and lacked consensus across sectors. This leads to the risk of unpredictable market volatility as dominant stocks weaken. In the short term, the market has surpassed the important resistance level of 1,860 points and is continuing towards the historical peak of 1,920–1,950 points before facing correction pressure. The nearest support level is at the psychological mark of 1,800 points, while a stronger support zone is identified around 1,680 points.

In the underlying scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to head towards its previous peak of 1,950 points.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvement in business operations. At the current stage, capital flows tend to favor sectors linked to domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital inflow have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.