Vietnam Insight

Ceasefire expectations and a positive earnings season support sentiment. US index futures were little changed on Thursday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh record highs in the prior session, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. President Donald Trump said the current truce would remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran, although Tehran has indicated it does not plan to engage in negotiations in the near term. In regular trading on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.05% and 1.64%, respectively, while the Dow added 0.69%. Market sentiment has been supported by a solid earnings season, with 3 out of 4 S&P 500 companies reporting so far surpassing either earnings or revenue expectations. In extended trading, Tesla fluctuated after warning of a sharp increase in capital expenditures, while IBM and ServiceNow dropped more than 7% and 12%, respectively, following disappointing results. 

Testing the upper bound of the sideways range. The VN-Index closed the session at 1,857.30 points (+23.82 points, +1.30%). Trading volume has declined sharply in recent sessions, falling below the 20-day average. There were 111 advancing stocks and 194 decliners. The main positive contributors to the index were VIC, VHM, and NVL, while HPG, STB, and GEE weighed negatively on the market. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of VND 99 billion, mainly concentrated in FPT, VHM, and MSB.

Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid chasing stocks and instead select those showing improvement in business performance. Given that geopolitical risks remain uncertain, we recommend maintaining a moderate equity exposure to effectively manage portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows are showing a preference for sectors supported by domestic drivers, such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, following a period of deep correction, recent sessions have indicated a return of capital inflows. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, sustaining its relative attractiveness to investors.