Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a cautious sentiment, rising slightly above the reference level. Selling pressure emerged at the beginning of the session as the selling momentum from the previous session continued. The market quickly reversed in the afternoon session following positive expectations from the 2026 business plan of Vingroup stocks. VIC contributed the most, with expectations that Vinfast will start generating EBITDA profits from 2027.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 23.82 points (+1.30%), reaching 1,857.30 points; the HNX-Index increased by 2.09 points (+0.83%), reaching 255.36 points. Market liquidity recovered sharply compared to previous sessions, remaining below the 20-day average at 23.2 trillion VND, corresponding to 812.9 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 99 billion VND today, with the largest net selling values in FPT, VHM, and MSR. Conversely, MWG, VIC, and MSN were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index opened with a slight gap up at the beginning of the session and faced selling pressure shortly afterward before approaching the 1,850 point resistance level. Despite a decline in overall market liquidity, the index easily surpassed the 1,850 resistance level thanks to the strong performance of Vingroup stocks, which contributed over 25 points to the overall index during the session. In the short term, the market may face correction pressure as it approaches the historical peak of 1,920 points. The nearest psychological support level is at 1,800 points, and further down is the 1,680 point area.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement has improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the war. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to aim for the old peak of 1,920 points.

In the negative scenario: The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvement in business operations. Currently, capital flows tend to favor sectors with domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital returning have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thus maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.