Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading week with a slight gain of 1.86 points. Selling pressure emerged at the beginning of the session due to concerns about escalating Middle Eastern conflicts. However, market sentiment gradually stabilized and demand prevailed, with the market returning to the reference level and closing near its highest point of the day. The index was significantly contributed by Vingroup stocks thanks to positive information from their business plans. Specifically, VHM changed its after-tax profit plan for 2026 from VND 50,000 billion to VND 60,000 billion, and VIC changed its after-tax profit plan for 2026 from VND 25,000 billion to VND 35,000 billion.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 19.94 points (+1.10%), reaching 1,837.11 points; The HNX-Index fell 2.67 points (-1.03%), to 257.33 points. Market liquidity decreased sharply compared to previous sessions, but remained below the 20-day average, at 23.0 trillion VND, corresponding to 711.4 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 605 billion VND today, with the largest net selling value in VIC, VPB, and BSR. Conversely, SSI, MWG, and FPT were the stocks with the largest net buying value.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index experienced a volatile session, fluctuating around a key resistance level, but still closed strongly higher at 1,837 points. The market's upward momentum is currently concentrated on a few key stocks, rather than spreading broadly and forming a consensus uptrend. Liquidity decreased during the recovery session. In the short term, the market may face correction pressure as it approaches the 1,860 point level. The nearest psychological support level is at 1,800 points, and further down is the 1,680 point area.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have yet to reach a complete agreement to end the conflict. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to head towards the 1,860 point level.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvement in business operations. At the current stage, capital flows tend to favor sectors linked to domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital inflow have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.