Vietnam Insight

Uncertainty has returned despite earlier optimism. US stock futures fell on Monday as tensions between the US and Iran intensified over the weekend amid renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Dow futures dropped nearly 1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. President Donald Trump said the US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored warnings to stop while departing Hormuz. Tehran also targeted ships and reversed plans to reopen the Strait following the US refusal to lift its blockade on Iranian ports. While optimism had been building late last week, uncertainty has since returned, even as Trump signaled that US negotiators would travel to Pakistan on Monday for further talks. Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied 4.54% and 6.84%, respectively, with both benchmarks reaching fresh record highs, while the Dow advanced 3.19% for its third consecutive weekly gain.

Testing the upper bound of the sideways range. The VN-Index closed the trading session at 1,817.17 points (-2.66 points, -0.17%), with trading volume slightly declining to around the 20-session average. There were 178 gainers and 146 losers. Stocks that contributed positively to the index included MWG, GVR, and VPB; meanwhile, VIC, VHM, and VPL weighed on the index. Foreign investors recorded a net buying value of approximately VND 110 billion, mainly concentrated in VIC and MWG.

Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid chasing stocks and instead select those showing improvement in business performance. Given that geopolitical risks remain uncertain, we recommend maintaining a moderate equity exposure to effectively manage portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows are showing a preference for sectors supported by domestic drivers, such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, following a period of deep correction, recent sessions have indicated a return of capital inflows. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, sustaining its relative attractiveness to investors.

Buy Recommendation: HDG