Vietnam Insight

Oil prices rebound as no agreement is reached. US stock futures declined on Monday after President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of weekend negotiations between the US and Iran to reach a deal. Futures tied to the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all dropped more than 1%. Vice President JD Vance departed Islamabad without an agreement with Iranian officials, citing their unwillingness to halt nuclear ambitions, while Tehran reportedly sought control of the strait, war reparations, and access to frozen assets. The effective closure of the key shipping route has driven energy prices sharply higher and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that central banks may delay rate cuts or even tighten policy further. On the corporate front, the first-quarter earnings season begins this week, with results due from major banks including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America.

Testing the upper bound of the sideways range. The VN-Index closed the trading session at 1,750 points, up 13.32 points (+0.77%), with trading volume slightly declining to around the 20-session average. There were 164 advancing stocks and 144 decliners. Stocks that contributed positively to the index included VIC, TCB, and BSR, while VHM, BVH, and HPG weighed on the index. Foreign investors recorded a net buy of VND 840 billion, mainly concentrated in TCB, HPG, and MBB.

Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid chasing stocks and instead select those showing improvement in business performance. Given that geopolitical risks remain uncertain, we recommend maintaining a moderate equity exposure to effectively manage portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows are showing a preference for sectors supported by domestic drivers, such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, following a period of deep correction, recent sessions have indicated a return of capital inflows. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, sustaining its relative attractiveness to investors.