Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

_ On the afternoon of April 9, newly appointed Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, Pham Duc An, chaired a meeting with representatives from 46 commercial banks to implement key tasks for the banking sector. 

_ The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire to pave the way for negotiations. However, Iranian media later reported that the country is suspending passage through the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened to withdraw from the agreement as Israel continues strikes in Lebanon. 

_ FTSE Russell officially confirmed the roadmap for upgrading Vietnam’s stock market to Secondary Emerging Market status. The inclusion of Vietnamese equities in its global indices will begin in September 2026 and be completed one year later. 

Assessment: The market recorded a positive trading week, supported by multiple domestic and international catalysts. Notably, the two-week ceasefire news and FTSE’s upgrade review announcement (released early morning on April 8) drove the index up nearly 80 points with strong liquidity. However, it is assessed that the rally was largely driven by the temporary ceasefire news, as other Asian markets also posted strong gains during the week. From a medium- to long-term perspective, caution remains due to the fragile nature of the ceasefire agreement. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, but the primary trend still requires further confirmation.

Technical View: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,750.04 points (+65.9 points; +3.92%) on the weekly chart, with strong liquidity. The medium- to long-term trend remains sideways within the 1,600–1,800 range. In the short term, the index is likely to move toward the upper bound of the range, around 1,800–1,850.

Investment Ideas: Investors are advised to avoid chasing rallies, as the main trend remains sideways. Priority should be given to sectors supported by domestic drivers, including public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a deep correction phase, signs of returning cash flow have emerged in recent sessions. Additionally, the securities sector continues to benefit from the market upgrade narrative.