Vietnam Insight

The ceasefire agreement is fragile. US stock futures dipped on Friday as investors tracked a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that ongoing operations in Lebanon fall outside the scope of the US-Iran truce, though he agreed to enter negotiations after facing accusations of violating the deal. President Donald Trump also cautioned Iran over imposing transit fees in Hormuz, criticizing its management of oil flows. Focus now shifts to upcoming diplomatic talks in Islamabad this weekend, where Vice President JD Vance will lead a US delegation in meetings with Iranian officials. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.58%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.62%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83%, extending this week’s rally on optimism that the US-Iran ceasefire will hold. All three major indexes are also on track to post a second straight week of gains.

Testing the upper bound of the sideways range. The VN-Index closed the trading session at 1,736.68 points (-19.87 points, -1.13%), with trading volume slightly decreasing to around the average of the last 20 sessions. There were 124 gainers and 191 losers. The stocks exerting the strongest upward pressure on the index were NVL, HPG, and LPB; meanwhile, VIC, VPL, and VCB contributed negatively to the index. Foreign investors net sold VND 2,213 billion, mainly focusing on VPL; conversely, HPG saw strong net buying.

Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid chasing stocks and instead select those showing improvement in business performance. Given that geopolitical risks remain uncertain, we recommend maintaining a moderate equity exposure to effectively manage portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows are showing a preference for sectors supported by domestic drivers, such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, following a period of deep correction, recent sessions have indicated a return of capital inflows. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, sustaining its relative attractiveness to investors.