Vietnam Insight

Positive developments but still maintaining uncertainty. US stock futures declined on Thursday as oil prices recovered modestly, with uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US-Israeli side weighing on sentiment. Iranian media reported that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had been suspended following fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while a senior Iranian official said three elements of the ceasefire proposal had already been violated. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance noted there are signs the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow surged 2.85%, the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.8% after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire aimed at facilitating negotiations toward a potential resolution to the conflict. Ten of the 11 S&P sectors ended higher, with industrials, communication services, and materials leading the advances.

Testing the upper bound of the sideways range. The VN-Index closed the trading session at 1,756.55 points (+79.01 points, +4.71%), with trading volume improving significantly and exceeding the average of the last 20 sessions. 322 stocks rose in price, while 27 declined. The stocks exerting the strongest upward pressure on the index were VIC, VHM, and VCB; meanwhile, LPB, DCL, and HRC contributed negatively to the index. Foreign investors net sold VND 652 billion, mainly focusing on VIC; conversely, HPG saw strong net buying.

Trading Strategy: Investors should avoid chasing stocks and instead select those showing improvement in business performance. Given that geopolitical risks remain uncertain, we recommend maintaining a moderate equity exposure to effectively manage portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows are showing a preference for sectors supported by domestic drivers, such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, following a period of deep correction, recent sessions have indicated a return of capital inflows. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, sustaining its relative attractiveness to investors.