Vietnam Insight

US job creation exceeded expectations in March. US stock futures declined on Monday after President Donald Trump set a new deadline for Iran and intensified threats against its power plants and other civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Tehran rejected the latest demand and continued strikes on energy assets across the Middle East, while the critical waterway remains effectively closed. US equities came under heavy selling pressure as the conflict drove energy prices sharply higher, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts and potentially raise borrowing costs this year if inflation persists. Meanwhile, data released during Friday’s holiday showed the US economy added 178K jobs in March, well above expectations of 60K, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% and wage growth moderated. Investors are now turning to the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes for further signals on the central bank’s policy path.

Accumulation. The VN-Index closed the last trading session of the week at 1,684.04 points (-10.78 points, -0.64%), with trading volume below the 20-session average. There were 78 gainers and 233 decliners. The stocks exerting the strongest downward pressure on the index were HPG, GEE, and BID, while VIC, VHM, and LPB contributed positively. Foreign investors recorded net selling of VND 1,571 billion, notably in VHM (net sell of VND 464 billion). On the weekly chart, VN-Index closed the week at 1,684.04 points (+11 points; +0.567%) with stable liquidity. The main trend is expected to continue sideways. The reference resistance is at 1,750 and support at 1,600 points. Market sentiment is generally wait-and-see and cautious.

Trading Strategy: Investors may consider gradual accumulation during market pullbacks. However, given that geopolitical risks remain uncertain, we recommend maintaining a moderate equity exposure to effectively manage portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows are showing a preference for sectors supported by domestic drivers, such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, following a period of deep correction, recent sessions have indicated a return of capital inflows. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, sustaining its relative attractiveness to investors.