Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

Trump reassures Americans, stating the Iran conflict may be nearing its end, though intensified attacks could continue for another 2–3 weeks

Q1/2026 GDP growth is projected at 8%–8.3%

March 2026 PMI: Rising input costs pushed output prices to increase at the fastest pace since April 2011

Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Iran is implementing procedures to allow Vietnamese vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

Assessment: The market traded within a narrow range following the previous recovery week, reflecting cautious investor sentiment, especially as Trump’s statements regarding the conflict remain unclear. According to the March PMI survey, nearly half of respondents reported increased input costs, with the pace of increase being the strongest since April 2022. These costs are expected to be passed on to customers. Additionally, inflation in March rose at the fastest rate in nearly 15 years, reinforcing expectations that banks will continue raising interest rates. Meanwhile, the ongoing AGM season and FTSE’s review results, scheduled for April 7, may serve as potential catalysts supporting the market.

Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,684.04 points (+11 points; +0.57%) on the weekly chart, with stable liquidity. The main trend is expected to remain sideways. Resistance is 1,750 and support is 1,600. Overall market sentiment remains cautious and observant.

Investment Idea: Investors may consider deploying capital with a low allocation given the prevailing risks. Increasing exposure should be considered if the market confirms a breakout above 1,750, supported by favorable news flow. Sectors benefiting from domestic drivers may be prioritized, including: Public investment, Banking, Construction, Basic materials. Additionally, preference should be given to companies with low leverage, given expectations of a higher interest rate environment.