Vietnam Insight

Declines across markets – reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts. US stock futures rose slightly on Monday as investors continued to monitor escalations in the Iran war and surging oil prices. In the latest developments, the US attacked military targets on Iran’s main oil-export hub of Kharg Island over the weekend and threatened to expand strikes to energy infrastructure if Tehran interferes with transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are also assessing reports that the US will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf with global markets. Last week, the Dow fell 1.99%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.26%, with all three benchmarks declining for a third straight week as geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. Higher energy prices and rising inflationary pressures also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

Waiting for bottom-fishing demand. VNINDEX closed at 1,696.24 points (-13.37 points, -0.78%) with liquidity moving sideways compared with the 20-session average. The market recorded 153 gainers and 167 decliners.The stocks that exerted the largest negative impact on the index were TCX, BSR, and GAS, while VHM, VNM, and VJC provided the main positive contributions. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of VND 397 billion, primarily concentrated in BSR and VIC. Many oil & gas stocks hit the floor limit

Trading Strategy: Investors may prioritize a flexible trading strategy within the 1,650–1,800 range while maintaining a moderate equity allocation, as geopolitical risk variables remain present. Investors may also consider domestically driven sectors, where indirect cross-margin call pressure could create opportunities to buy at lower levels. In addition, commodity-related stocks may be worth considering as commodity prices enter an upward trend.