Vietnam Insight

WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Trump signaled that the war may be nearing its end. US stock futures dropped sharply on Monday as oil surged past $100 a barrel amid the escalating Middle East conflict, raising concerns that higher energy costs could slow growth and reignite inflation. Dow and S&P 500 futures fell 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 2%. With the Iran war entering its second week and oil shipments effectively blocked through the Strait of Hormuz, several Middle Eastern producers, including Kuwait, Iran, and the UAE, have cut crude output as available storage nears capacity. Wall Street was already pressured last week after weaker-than-expected payrolls data stoked inflation concerns linked to the conflict. The Dow finished last week 3% lower, the S&P 500 fell 2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.2%. Investors now turn to this week’s CPI and PCE inflation readings for directional cues, along with earnings from Oracle, Adobe, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, among others.

Short term downtrend. The VN-Index closed at 1,652.79 points (a decrease of 115.05 points, or -6.51%), with liquidity remaining high compared to the 20-day moving average. The market breadth was significantly negative, recording only 11 gainers against 366 losers. The stock groups exerting the most downward pressure on the index were VIC, VCB, and VHM, while the gainers supporting the index included HRC, DCL, and TNC. Foreign investors were net sellers to the tune of 348 billion VND, with selling pressure concentrated on FPT and VHM.

Trading Strategy: Short-term investors should prioritize staying on the sidelines as geopolitical risks are highly unpredictable. For medium-term positions accumulated at low prices, investors may continue holding sectors such as steel and banking, but maintain a moderate portfolio allocation.