Vietnam Insight

▶ Following yesterday's recovery, the market returned to a decline on Wednesday, with selling pressure continuing in the Vin group, putting downward pressure on the overall index. Market liquidity increased compared to the previous trading session, with the VN-Index trading volume reaching over 969 million shares, equivalent to a value of over 31.1 trillion VND. Foreign investors continued to net sell nearly 1 trillion VND on the HOSE exchange. Market breadth was fairly balanced, with 349 stocks declining and 364 stocks rising. However, red dominated the VN30 basket with 16 declining stocks, 10 rising, and 4 unchanged stocks.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 21.97 points (-1.21%), closing at 1,791.43 points. The HNX-Index increased by 0.77 points (+0.29%), reaching 265.95 points. Total market liquidity reached 36.8 trillion VND, corresponding to more than 1.57 billion shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 964 billion VND, with significant net selling recorded in FPT (-585 billion VND), VIC (-568 billion VND), and VHM (-331 billion VND). Conversely, typical net buying included HPG (947 billion VND), MBB, DBC, etc.

▶ Technical perspective: Excluding Vingroup-related stocks and state-owned banks, the VN-Index was broadly flat, while liquidity improved and market breadth remained positive. Investment flows rotated into construction materials, with HPG attracting strong foreign buying during the session. Meanwhile, several industrial park stocks faced profit-taking pressure following their strong recent performance. Notably, securities stocks have also seen improving capital inflows over the past few trading days.

We maintain our view that the primary market trend remains bullish. The VN-Index continues to trade above its 50-day moving average (MA50) and is currently testing the upper boundary of the sideways range established in the second half of 2025. Momentum remains neutral, with the RSI at 43.

From a quantitative perspective, We monitor the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and tends to peak around the 60%–70% range. With the current figure sitting above 46%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for the majority of stocks.sitting above 43%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for the majority of stocks.

Base Case Scenario: After surpassing the 1,800 threshold, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory toward a fair valuation zone of approximately 2,000. There are currently no technical resistance levels ahead. The necessary conditions for the market to sustain this uptrend are continued improvement in liquidity (with the participation of institutional investors) and cash flow gradually spreading to other sectors.

Bearish Case Scenario: The strong momentum, coupled with improved liquidity and market breadth, indicates a positive dispersion that provides investors with a suitable stop-loss point should the market encounter unexpected negative news. Accordingly, in a negative scenario where the VN-Index drops sharply and breaks below the previously accumulated sideway channel around 1,600-1,700, investors may consider reducing their exposure to manage portfolio risk.

Strategy: Corrective sessions present opportunities for investors to increase their positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with solid business results and positive growth prospects for 2026 that have not yet seen corresponding price appreciation, such as private commercial banks, retail, securities, and steel.