Vietnam Insight

Criminal investigation into the Fed Chair. US stock futures fell on Tuesday as investors cautiously awaited the latest consumer inflation report for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year starting in June, although any upside surprise in inflation could constrain the central bank’s scope to ease. Attention is also turning to JPMorgan’s Q4 earnings, which will kick off a wave of results from major banks this week, including Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. In regular trading on Monday, the Dow added 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.26%. Nine of the 11 S&P sectors ended higher, led by consumer staples, industrials and materials. Meanwhile, federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which he described as a “pretext” by President Trump to pressure the Fed into cutting rates.

Widening market breadth, uptrend confirmed. The VNINDEX closed at 1,877.33 (+9.43 points, +0.50%) with higher-than-average trading volume over the past 20 sessions. The market saw 240 gainers and 91 losers. Stocks hindering the market's upward movement included VIC, VHM, and VRE; the stocks contributing most to the index's rise were VCB, BID, and VPB. Foreign investors made net purchases of VND 1,083 billion, focusing on VCB, VPB, and HPG.

Trading Strategy: Investors may initiate positions in stocks with solid fundamentals and improving liquidity that have reclaimed their EMA50, such as Securities, Banking, Construction Materials, and Industrial Real Estate... Conversely, for sectors exhibiting weakening capital inflows—such as Residential Real Estate—investors should consider paring back exposure to manage risk if stop-loss levels are triggered.