Vietnam Insight

▶ The market attempted to extend its recovery momentum but faced a struggling session characterized by mixed performance across sectors. While most stocks pulled back following yesterday's strong rebound, select tickers such as BID, GEX, and DBC posted solid gains. Liquidity continued to lose steam, with the total matched value dropping sharply to VND 21 trillion across the entire market. Foreign investors maintained a relatively balanced trading value between buying and selling; aside from heavy selling of VIC (VND 170 billion), this group aggressively accumulated several stocks such as HDB and FPT, resulting in negligible net buying overall.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index declined by 5.52 points (-0.33%) to finish at 1,673.66 points; the HNX-Index fell by 1.96 points (-0.77%) to 253.12 points. Market-wide liquidity retreated to the VND 21 trillion mark, corresponding to a trading volume of just over 696 million shares. Foreign trading remained balanced during the session, with the strongest net buying seen in HDB, FPT, and GEX. Conversely, significant net selling was observed in VIC, CTG, VHM, among others.

▶ VPL (+4.27%), GEE (+6.98%), and BID (+1.60%) were the top three contributors supporting the index. On the flip side, VJC (-3.34%), GAS (-2.18%), and CTG (-1.56%) were the primary drags on the market.

▶ Telecommunications Services and Industrial Goods were the standout sectors in today's session, contributing the most to the index's gains. Key representatives included VGI (+1.88%) and GEE (+6.98%).

▶ Technical perspective: The market traded with fluctuation around the MA50 support level and continued to move below the MA10 and MA20 lines. Low trading liquidity indicates that demand remains hesitant to enter as the trend has yet to show clear improvement. The dominant trend is trading within the 1,600 – 1,700 point range; short-term volatility is likely to persist, and the market requires sessions with stronger, more widespread cash flow to convincingly conquer the 1,700-point threshold.

Base-case scenario: The market stages a positive recovery and surpasses the 1,700 level (temporarily breaking out of the 1,600–1,700 sideways range) driven by improved liquidity, better market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. We anticipate the market will face certain resistance when revisiting previous highs, likely consolidating around the 1,800 level before cash flow improves following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative-case scenario: Downward momentum accelerates with increasing volume on the downside, with no bottom-fishing demand emerging around the 1,550–1,580 support zone. In this scenario, the market could continue heading toward the 1,500 support level and lower zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors need to select stocks carefully given that the VN-Index is being heavily influenced by movements in the VIC group. Medium- and long-term investors can begin to partially disburse capital into stocks with solid earnings results and sufficiently attractive valuations, such as Banking, Finance, and Construction Materials. Short-term investors should monitor cash flow and price improvements to select stocks in sectors such as Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology…