Vietnam Insight

▶ Selling pressure dominated the morning session, pushing the market down to the 1,630 level at one point. However, demand strengthened in the afternoon, triggering a broad-based rally across many stocks. This helped the VN-Index rebound sharply to close with a gain of 33 points, while the VN30 surged by 40 points. Consequently, liquidity improved in the afternoon session as market sentiment became more relieved. Foreign investors maintained a relatively balanced position today with buying and selling values roughly equal; notable stocks under strong selling pressure included VIC, VCB, and DGC.

▶ Closing the session, the VN-Index rose by 33.17 points (+2.02%) to 1,679.19 points; the HNX-Index increased by 5.71 points (+2.29%) to reach 255.08 points. Market-wide liquidity reached VND 27 trillion, corresponding to a trading volume of over 955 million shares. Foreign trading remained balanced, with the top net bought stocks being TCX, MWG, and VIX. Conversely, the top net sold stocks included VIC, VCB, and DGC.

▶ Technical perspective: The market traded with mixed volatility around the medium-term support level (MA100) during the morning session. However, cash flow entered the market in the afternoon, spreading across various sectors, which helped the VN-Index surge and close right at the MA50 level. The market recorded a positive session; a key highlight today was the participation of cash flow. The dominant trend remains range-bound between 1,600 and 1,700 points. The market requires sessions with strong, broad-based cash flow to convincingly break through the 1,700 mark.

Base Case Scenario: The market stages a positive recovery and surpasses the 1,700 level (temporarily breaking out of the 1,600–1,700 sideways range) driven by improved liquidity, better market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. We anticipate the market will face certain resistance when revisiting previous highs, likely consolidating around the 1,800 level before cash flow improves following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative Scenario: Downward momentum accelerates with increasing volume on the downside, with no bottom-fishing demand emerging around the 1,550–1,580 support zone. In this scenario, the market could continue heading toward the 1,500 support level and lower zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors need to select stocks carefully given that the VN-Index is being heavily influenced by movements in the VIC group. Medium- and long-term investors can begin to partially disburse capital into stocks with solid earnings results and sufficiently attractive valuations, such as Banking, Finance, and Construction Materials. Short-term investors should monitor cash flow and price improvements to select stocks in sectors such as Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology…