Vietnam Insight

Less than a 50% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps next month. US stock futures climbed on Monday as investors geared up for a wave of economic data releases delayed by the government shutdown along with earnings from major companies this week. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2% and 0.4% while Dow futures were flat. Key economic releases expected this week include the September jobs report though markets are still awaiting a revised schedule. On the corporate front, AI chipmaker Nvidia will post earnings on Wednesday along with other S&P 500 names such as Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Palo Alto Networks and Intuit. Last week the major averages initially advanced before turning lower amid ongoing concerns about stretched AI valuations and uncertainty over the Federal Reserves rate cutting path. Markets are now pricing in less than a 50% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25 bps rate cut next month, down from nearly 90% one month earlier.

Return to the sideways range of 1,600-1,700. At the end of the week, VNINDEX increased slightly by 4.02 points (+0.25%), closing at 1,635.46 (-0.42 points, -0.03%) with liquidity remaining lower than the 20-session average. The market had 153 stocks increasing and 138 stocks decreasing. The stocks contributing the most to the index's increase were TCX, LPB and HPG; the stocks hindering the market were CTG, VPL and MSN. Foreign investors net sold with a value of 672 billion VND. The stocks with the strongest net selling were STB and VCI (nearly 400 billion). On the contrary, VNM, HPG and FPT were net bought the most.

Trading Strategy: For Traders: It is advisable to limit transactions and wait for signs of renewed buying demand to emerge and for the market to form a new price base. For Medium- to Long-Term Investors: They may begin to partially disburse capital into stock groups with solid business results and a sufficiently attractive valuation discount such as those in the banking, finance, and construction materials sectors....