Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• On September 17, the Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.0–4.25%, marking its first reduction since late 2024. It also projected further cuts in the October and December 2025 meetings to counter risks of labor market weakness, even though inflation remains above target.
• According to UOB Bank’s forecast, the SBV (State Bank of Vietnam) will likely maintain a cautious monetary stance amid still-elevated inflation and increasing exchange rate pressure.

Technical View: TThe VN-Index closed the week at 1,658.62 (-8.64 points, -0.52%) with low liquidity. The index has hovered around this range for the past month. Foreign investors net sold nearly VND6 trillion during the week. The market is currently consolidating around the 1,640 area in the short term while maintaining its medium- to long-term uptrend. However, bearish divergence signals indicate weakening momentum, and the index may need to retest the 1,600 zone, which coincides with the 50-day moving average (MA50) on the daily chart.

Investment Idea: Prioritize a hold strategy while being ready to sell when targets are achieved. For short-term traders: if the market corrects toward 1,600 and bounces, consider deploying a small allocation. If the index retreats to the 1,540 region, this would present a clearer medium-term buying opportunity. Investors can allocate more aggressively, focusing on stocks with strong drivers such as beneficiaries of the upgrade, companies with robust earnings growth, or those with valuations below the market average.